Global market intelligence firm CONTEXT is forecasting a resurgence in European IT distribution sales, with year- on-year growth of 3.6% in 2025, following two years of stagnation and decline.
CONTEXT Research Director Anthony Frot said: “After a tough period, the European IT distribution market is regaining strength. The PC refresh cycle, AI-led infrastructure demand and a more stable macroeconomic environment are setting the stage for sustainable growth. While challenges persist, the signs for 2025 are encouraging.”
The Q1 2025 CONTEXT Forecasting Report predicts recovery across the IT distribution sector, with growth expected to accelerate in the latter half of the year, fuelled by four key growth drivers:
1 PC Refresh Cycle Acceleration – The end of Windows 10 support is expected to drive corporate and consumer upgrades, particularly in mobile PCs. Mobile computing unit sales are forecast to grow 2.1% YoY in Q1 2025 and 4.7% over the full year, with most growth occurring in H2 2025. Desktop sales are predicted to rise by 4% YoY in Q1 and 5.1% for the year, while revenue is set to grow 5.8% YoY.
2 AI Investment Surge – Increased spending on AI-ready servers and storage solutions is fuelling on-premises infrastructure growth.
3 Public Sector Stimulus – Government-led digital transformation initiatives, such as Spain’s Digital Kit program, will boost distribution revenues.
4 Resilient Software & Services Growth – Strong software sales continue to outperform expectations, reinforcing distributors’ critical role in the supply chain.
Frot added: “The second half of 2025 is likely to be stronger as businesses resume infrastructure investments and governments push digital adoption. However, the market remains sensitive to political and economic volatility.”
These include geopolitical uncertainties in Europe, potential trade conflicts and fluctuating exchange rates.
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